Every weekday Ravenmaster reads 57 market data series and 81 official and news sources. Only the market data sets the levels. The text sources add context and are checked for emergency announcements.
| Indicator | Area |
|---|---|
| Bank borrowing from the Fed's emergency window | Banks and funding |
| Change in US bank deposits over 4 weeks | Banks and funding |
| Overnight dollar funding cost vs Fed rate (5-day avg.) | Banks and funding |
| Assets of US banks that failed in the last 60 days (FDIC) | Banks and funding |
| Banks' use of the New York Fed's standing repo facility | Banks and funding |
| Extra interest companies pay over US government bonds | Corporate credit |
| One-month rise in the extra interest companies pay | Corporate credit |
| Credit stress (credit component of the OFR Financial Stress Index, US Treasury) | Corporate credit |
| Expected stock market swings (VIX) | Financial markets |
| Global financial stress index (US Treasury OFR) | Financial markets |
| US financial stress index (St. Louis Fed) | Financial markets |
| US financial conditions index (Chicago Fed) | Financial markets |
| Short-term vs 3-month expected volatility (VIX / VIX3M) | Financial markets |
| Largest one-week move in US 10- or 30-year Treasury yields | Financial markets |
| Day-to-day swings in the US 10-year Treasury yield (20-day average) | Financial markets |
| Euro area systemic stress (ECB CISS, 0 to 1) | Europe and UK |
| One-week change in the 20-year UK government bond yield | Europe and UK |
| One-week move in the 10-year German government bond yield (Bundesbank) | Europe and UK |
| Dollar strength over one month | Currencies, China and emerging markets |
| Change in USD/JPY over two weeks | Currencies, China and emerging markets |
| Emerging market currencies vs the dollar over one month (BRL, MXN, ZAR, INR, KRW, IDR) | Currencies, China and emerging markets |
| Hong Kong one-month interbank rate (HIBOR) minus the US one-month rate (HKMA, US Treasury) | Currencies, China and emerging markets |
| Chinese yuan vs the dollar over two weeks | Currencies, China and emerging markets |
| Size of the oil price move over one month | Commodities, energy and shipping |
| Brent oil price, distance from its one-year average | Commodities, energy and shipping |
| Largest drop in ship traffic through a key chokepoint (IMF PortWatch) | Commodities, energy and shipping |
| Expected swings in the gold price (Cboe gold volatility index) | Commodities, energy and shipping |
| Bitcoin fall from its 7-day high | Crypto |
| Largest stablecoin deviation from $1 (USDT, USDC, DAI) | Crypto |
| Change in total stablecoin supply over 7 days | Crypto |
| Ether fall from its 7-day high | Crypto |
| Largest weekly net outflow from a single large crypto exchange | Crypto |
| Geopolitical risk index, 7-day average (100 = 1985-2019 average) | Geopolitics |
| Geopolitical risk compared with its 3-month average | Geopolitics |
| Geopolitical acts index, 7-day average (actual events, not threats) | Geopolitics |
| World news about troop buildups and invasion fears, compared with normal (GDELT) | Geopolitics |
| Russian shares in dollars over four weeks (RTS index, Moscow Exchange) | Geopolitics |
| Strongest geomagnetic storm of the day (planetary K index, GFZ Potsdam) | Infrastructure: cyber and space |
| Official cyber warnings concerning the financial sector, past 7 days (CISA, UK NCSC) | Infrastructure: cyber and space |
| Reported cyber incidents at banks, exchanges and payment firms, past 7 days | Infrastructure: cyber and space |
| One-week jump in expected swings in tech stocks (VXN, Cboe) | Technology |
| Expected swings in tech stocks (Nasdaq-100 volatility index, VXN) | Technology |
| Expected swings in tech stocks, one-month average (VXN, Cboe) | Technology |
| Year-on-year change in cloud capital spending (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, SEC filings) | Technology |
Data: Federal Reserve and FRED, US Treasury Office of Financial Research, New York Fed, FDIC, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Chicago Fed, St. Louis Fed, Cboe, ICE BofA, Coinbase, DefiLlama, IMF PortWatch, GFZ Potsdam, Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, CISA, UK NCSC, Nasdaq, SEC company filings, Federal Register, Deutsche Bundesbank, Cboe gold volatility, PAX Gold via CoinGecko.
| US 10-year Treasury yield |
| US 10-year real yield (after inflation) |
| German 10-year government bond yield |
| Gold, per ounce (via the PAX Gold token, backed one-to-one by London gold) |
| US 10-year minus 3-month interest rate (negative has preceded past recessions) |
| Brent crude oil, per barrel |
| US natural gas (Henry Hub), per MMBtu |
| Geopolitical risk index, 7-day average (100 = 1985-2019 average) |
| US economic policy uncertainty, 7-day average |
| US Treasury's cash account at the Fed |
| Cash parked at the Fed's reverse repo facility (liquidity cushion) |
| Russian roubles per US dollar (Bank of Russia official rate) |
| Hedge funds' net position in yen futures (CFTC) |
Data: FRED, US Treasury, CFTC, Caldara and Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index, Economic Policy Uncertainty index.
Every indicator, every area and the overall reading get a Stress Score. 0 is the calmest reading in the history we hold and 100 the most extreme, such as the weeks after Lehman's collapse. A typical day scores about 25. The scale is tied to our levels: 50 is where an indicator turns to Caution and 75 where it turns to Alert, so the score never contradicts the level.
An area's score follows its most stressed indicator, a little higher when several move together. The overall score is the average of the three most stressed of the six core areas, so it shows how widespread stress is. The score describes today; it does not predict what comes next. The public page shows it one week late, like the level.
Six Ravens reports also show Public Alarm: how many people worldwide are suddenly reading about bank runs, market crashes, crypto failures or war, from the Wikimedia Foundation's official daily page-view counts for selected Wikipedia articles. We use counts only, never article content. A sudden jump in public attention often comes with panic before official figures can show it: the run on Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023 showed on the day. It measures concern, not facts, and it never changes a level. Crypto attention also rises in rallies, so it counts only while prices are falling.
Series retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Moody's (Baa corporate bond yield relative to the 10-year Treasury); Cboe Global Markets (VIX, VIX3M, VXN, Gold Volatility Index); Coinbase (bitcoin and ether prices); Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (National Financial Conditions Index); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, 10-year minus 3-month Treasury); Federal Reserve Bank of New York (SOFR, reverse repo); Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Treasury (Treasury yields, dollar index, bank lending and deposits, Treasury cash); US Energy Information Administration (oil and gas prices); Baker, Bloom and Davis (economic policy uncertainty). Also: Office of Financial Research (Financial Stress Index and its credit component); European Central Bank (CISS, exchange rates); Bank of England; Deutsche Bundesbank; Hong Kong Monetary Authority; Bank of Russia; Moscow Exchange; IMF PortWatch; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Kp index, CC BY 4.0); Caldara and Iacoviello (Geopolitical Risk Index); the GDELT Project; FDIC; Federal Reserve Bank of New York (repo operations); US Commodity Futures Trading Commission; US Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR); Federal Register; NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center; DefiLlama; CoinGecko; Wikimedia Foundation (page-view statistics, used for Public Alarm). World map: Natural Earth (public domain). Ravenmaster publishes readings derived from these series; the original data remain the property of their providers.